Climate Change Risk by County

Climate change is intensifying natural disaster risks across the United States, but the impact is profoundly unequal at the county level. Some counties face multiple overlapping hazards — flooding, wildfire, hurricanes, and extreme heat — while others remain relatively sheltered from the worst effects. Understanding these risks is critical for homebuyers, insurers, and policymakers.

Using FEMA National Risk Index data combined with NOAA extreme heat metrics, we identified the counties facing the highest and lowest combined climate and disaster risks.

The 25 Highest-Risk Counties

Baldwin County, AL faces the highest composite risk score in the nation. These counties typically combine flood vulnerability with hurricane or wildfire exposure and high population density.

The 25 Lowest-Risk Counties

At the other end of the spectrum, these counties face minimal natural disaster risk and moderate climate exposure, making them potential climate refuges.

Methodology

Composite risk scores come from the FEMA National Risk Index (2020), which combines natural hazard risk, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Extreme heat days come from NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 climate normals. Counties missing risk data are excluded from the rankings.